31 January 2015

Repatriation Update

Ronan tweets that FRBNY Dec withdrawals were only 10.31t. As we were expecting 42t, Victor suggests only three options:
  1. US gov't tells lies
  2. Bundesbank tells lies
  3. US gov't loco swapped part of their gold to London so the Bundesbank could get LGD
I think a swap is the most likely and as Ronan notes such loco swaps between central banks occur often. The question is whether it was the US or Germany or Netherlands that requested the swap and who else was on the other side of the swap - I'd agree Bank of England is best candidate.
A possible rework of the repatriation schedule from my last post is below.
Month Germany NetherlandsTotal
Feb 14 10.31 10.31
Mar 14 9.58 9.58
May 14 5.16  5.16
Jun 14 5.16  5.16
Jul 14 24.31  24.31
Aug 14 15.47 15.47
Sep 14  7.377.37
Oct 14  41.9941.99
Nov 14 5.1641.9947.15
Dec 14 10.31 10.31
Total FRBNY85.4691.35176.81
Swapped 31.6531.65
The numbers can work with Germany not doing a swap and it being the Netherlands that did the swap but you can mix up the numbers any way. Koos reported that the Netherlands started in October which if true means they must have swapped something as only 99.45t came out of FRBNY over the last quarter and even if you include the 7.37t as a late Sep shipment for Netherlands, which could be consistent with a general statement about an October start, they still had to swap circa 31.65t.

On the side of Germany having done a swap is their reporting of them utilising BIS' "expertise", as the BIS is involved in facilitating transactions in the gold market.
The 10.31t figure for Dec gives both Koos and Boehringer something to question the two governments about who swapped - either way Germany or Netherlands has not fully explained that they did not physically repatriate ALL of the gold from the US. Hopefully they can get to the bottom of who misrepresented by omission.


  1. A commentor at Koos blog https://www.bullionstar.com/blog/koos-jansen/federal-reserve-new-york-gold-withdrawal-numbers-2014-dont-match-dutch-german-repatriation-claims/ note another possibility, "that another central bank could have added to their reserves held at the Fed", given that the FRBNY is only reporting net change in its custodial holdings.

    I'd probably give this a lower probability than a swap as that is starting to be a lot of movements, 74t over a restricted number of working days (secured carriers generally are not keen on having stuff in transit over holidays), not unreasonable to ship that amount in/out but why do it in December. Given it is unlikely that a central bank decides to relocate existing stock to NY, if this theory is correct that it could be due to a purchase by a central bank, in which case we need to look for who added to reserves.

    1. You imply in the follow up comment that the added reserves (by another depositor at the FRBNY to account for the withdrawal shortfall) would have occurred in December... why couldn't it have been any month during the year?

    2. Primarily on the basis that Netherlands said they start repatriation in October, although you are correct maybe they took more in Oct or Nov than FRBNY net figures imply.

  2. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-06/%E2%80%98secret%E2%80%99-gold-repatriation-banksters%E2%80%99-newest-bullion-scam

    will this conspiracy nonsense never cease?

  3. Hi everybody,

    today came out a "gold movie" by the german Bundesbank (and the " gold repatriation"):

    Still trying to figure out, why they stated in the movie what they did (because the official statement on their website does not really add up, at least to me)
    Greets, AD

  4. Waiting on the English version, but it seems like a bit of PR.

    1. okay, agree, "a little bit of PR". But since when did a CB ever care for PR?
      Or do they wanna give gold some PR? Kind of desperate that nobody cares for gold?
      At least for the german CB, gold is 75% of their "reserves" (compare that with the narrative of the Swiss CB....)? Actually that is funny, in the movie they state "gold is part of our reserves, just like the dollar or other currencies..."
      The repariation they explain with that the cold war is over, therefore not needed to be located oversea.... gimme a break, cold war is over since 25yrs, now they finally figure? Despite the fact, that the german government is doing their very best, to start a new one with Putin?
      So regardless of "cold war" whatever, why have the gold in germany? And if their is a good reason, why still have some in London/NY (remember, since WWII, Germany had been a surplus nation every single year, looks like the german worker enjoys slavery for the $IMF&PIIGS, but still the Bundesbank states "to get other currencies in case of emergencies"...)?
      Nobody could come up with any reasonable explaination, except those stupid narratives of GATA tin foil jerks, not to be taken seriously in the first place.
      Greets, AD