20 June 2012

Silver Seasonality

Inspired by a chart Ed Steer posted on silver's seasonality, I decided to have a deeper look at it. I was looking for a strong pattern and considered many different time periods but just couldn't find anything reliable enough. I think silver is just too inherently volatile and driven by differing globally dispersed demand drivers to exhibit any consistent seasonality.
Article can be download from here.


  1. how about this mental disability in that same Steer piece:

    "There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV.

    I note that the new short positions in GLD and SLV have been posted over at the shortsqueeze.com Internet site. It shows that SLV's short position declined by 1.28%...and also shows that 14.01 million shares that are not backed by physical metal.

    The short position in GLD actually rose 7.82%...and indicates that 18.69 million GLD shares are not backed by the metal itself.

    To set things right, about 58 tonnes of gold, along with about 436 tonnes of silver would have to be deposited."

    how can these guys purport to analyze the PM markets when they don't even understand the PM ETFs, which have completely changed the landscape of the metals?

    embarrassing.. .for them.

  2. Is that fraud not to possess security (gold and silver) and trade or is this another demonstration of fractional reserve lending or is it fractional reserve trading?

  3. anon - it's none of the above - well, actually, you could call it a version of "fractional reserve trading", I guess. we covered it at length previously many times.

    try this thread:


    more generally, there's this:


  4. My theory is to steer clear of the electronic manipulation of the stock markets, don’t even touch it. It would be best to simply take physical possession, if you have the cash then buy it. Nothing better to stay in the real world. Too much is moving to virtual reality. When the day of reckoning comes as all do know because there is more paper money out there than toilet paper, people will run with all their paper and electronic credits to the Perth Mint and they will weld their doors shut. No gold or silver for anyone. I think the Perth Mint stop taking orders at the 2008 GFC, which to me means they have closed the doors at that time. Therefore all the virtual wealth will evaporate and all will be standing with toilet paper in their hands. At least they can use it when the SHTF.
    Whatever the price is at the time, is what you pay for. The best comparison when the economy is steady is to value one ounce of gold is equivalent to a weekly wage. Anything above that is getting too high and anything below you are getting a bargain. As the volatility starts to increase with high fluctuations in price, this shows that the economy is resonating itself to destruction and the collapse of the dollar is near. I reckon people need to go back to basics. People can make something sound as complicated and exotic as they like to make more money, but in the end gold is still gold.

  5. Anon,

    Holding physical is a good idea and probably the best approach for those with small amounts. But if you have a few million, storing that at home isn't a good idea, which is where Perth Mint's Depository comes in.

    FYI, the 2008 stopping of orders was because we were maxed out factory wise, we never stopped selling or buying back Depository metal, nor stopping anyone from taking delivery of their metal.

  6. A few million ounces wouldnt be bad, could never afford that nor able to afford a few million dollars worth unless if hyperinflation eventuates.

    There maybe a run on the banks, but less will run to the Perth mint as population are not aware of what gold is.

    Anyway there must be policies from the Perth Mint not to sell the gold under hyperinflation conditions? If no wants the paper money at that time, why on earth would the Perth Mint want the paper money. Under stable economic conditons it maybe OK to use paper.

    If you stop taking orders isnt that the same as to stop selling? I understand you can you sell what you do have but you cant sell what you dont have. Kind of scary if you really think about it, some people think there is an endless supply of gold and you can get it anytime, little do they know.