13 October 2008

Maturity Crisis in Gold

Excellent blog at Unqualified Reservations about the lease rate.

It should be noted that the primary driver of lease rates has been miner hedging. Have a look at the chart at this blog and then compare to chart of lease rates.

You will see that as miner hedging increased from 1994, lease rates moved from average 0.75% during early 90s to 1.5% during mid 90s to early 00s. They then drop to historically low levels when miners started to de-hedge, all wanting to meet investor calls for full exposure to the gold price.

Doubtful this time miners will be hedging again so this lease spike totally dependent on when central banks regain confidence in bullion banks. Funny how they are prepared to throw fiat money around to any bank that needs it, but not so keen to do the same with gold.

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