I was wondering whether you have come across the opinions of Harvey Organ on Comex contracts and, if so, what your thoughts might be on his deductions.
I've seen his stuff. It is very detailed short term type analysis and thus is not my area of expertise.
I am more interested in the longer term big picture. My view is that the real figure to watch is the percentage of contracts that take physical delivery. A significant change in this indicates a shift in investor behaviour that could drive big increases in the gold price.
"Coming back to the Coeur deal - as my colleague Dorothy Kosich noted in her article today on the company's new Kensington mine in Alaska (Coeur Mines' controversial Kensington Alaska gold mine now a reality), "The gold concentrates produced at Kensington will be processed by China's largest gold producer China National Gold through an agreement that is the first of its kind between a state-owned corporation of the People's Republic of China and a U.S. precious metals mine......"
"China Gold will be paying upfront, which means that in terms of timing, Coeur will get paid seven days after shipping vs. the typical two-three months that most concentrate producers must wait, while the metal is being processed at the smelter/refinery."
Mineweb goes on to say:
"To buy newly-mined gold production at source is thus a clever ploy. It is not interfering with the gold market directly by being seen to buy, but picking up gold which is actually never reaching the market."
Hello,
ReplyDeleteI was wondering whether you have come across the opinions of Harvey Organ on Comex contracts and, if so, what your thoughts might be on his deductions.
Thank you
Guido
Guido,
ReplyDeleteI've seen his stuff. It is very detailed short term type analysis and thus is not my area of expertise.
I am more interested in the longer term big picture. My view is that the real figure to watch is the percentage of contracts that take physical delivery. A significant change in this indicates a shift in investor behaviour that could drive big increases in the gold price.
Hi Bron,
ReplyDeleteHow do you track the "percentage of contracts that take physical delivery"?
Is there a website that provides this data/view?
I use Sharelynx
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sharelynx.com/gold/CMXAUStockDelivery.php
It is a subscription service, but not expensive and very worthwhile.
Bron,
ReplyDelete"My view is that the real figure to watch is the percentage of contracts that take physical delivery."
Might be worth keeping an eye on China's efforts to secure gold before it reaches an exchange.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=106850&sn=Detail&pid=34
"Coming back to the Coeur deal - as my colleague Dorothy Kosich noted in her article today on the company's new Kensington mine in Alaska (Coeur Mines' controversial Kensington Alaska gold mine now a reality), "The gold concentrates produced at Kensington will be processed by China's largest gold producer China National Gold through an agreement that is the first of its kind between a state-owned corporation of the People's Republic of China and a U.S. precious metals mine......"
"China Gold will be paying upfront, which means that in terms of timing, Coeur will get paid seven days after shipping vs. the typical two-three months that most concentrate producers must wait, while the metal is being processed at the smelter/refinery."
Mineweb goes on to say:
"To buy newly-mined gold production at source is thus a clever ploy. It is not interfering with the gold market directly by being seen to buy, but picking up gold which is actually never reaching the market."
IMHO perhaps a very clever "ploy" indeed.