Repatriation Update

Ronan tweets that FRBNY Dec withdrawals were only 10.31t. As we were expecting 42t, Victor suggests only three options:

1. US gov't tells lies
2. Bundesbank tells lies
3. US gov't loco swapped part of their gold to London so the Bundesbank could get LGD

I think a swap is the most likely and as Ronan notes such loco swaps between central banks occur often. The question is whether it was the US or Germany or Netherlands that requested the swap and who else was on the other side of the swap - I'd agree Bank of England is best candidate.

 

A possible rework of the repatriation schedule from my last post is below.

 

Month	Germany	Netherlands	Total
Feb 14	10.31		10.31
Mar 14	9.58		9.58
May 14	5.16		5.16
Jun 14	5.16		5.16
Jul 14	24.31		24.31
Aug 14	15.47		15.47
Sep 14		7.37	7.37
Oct 14		41.99	41.99
Nov 14	5.16	41.99	47.15
Dec 14	10.31		10.31
Total FRBNY	85.46	91.35	176.81
Swapped		31.65	31.65
Repatriated	85.46	123	208.47

 

The numbers can work with Germany not doing a swap and it being the Netherlands that did the swap but you can mix up the numbers any way. Koos reported that the Netherlands started in October which if true means they must have swapped something as only 99.45t came out of FRBNY over the last quarter and even if you include the 7.37t as a late Sep shipment for Netherlands, which could be consistent with a general statement about an October start, they still had to swap circa 31.65t.

On the side of Germany having done a swap is their reporting of them utilising BIS' "expertise", as the BIS is involved in facilitating transactions in the gold market.

 

The 10.31t figure for Dec gives both Koos and Boehringer something to question the two governments about who swapped - either way Germany or Netherlands has not fully explained that they did not physically repatriate ALL of the gold from the US. Hopefully they can get to the bottom of who misrepresented by omission.