tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post988914350005670376..comments2024-02-05T17:24:09.663+08:00Comments on Gold Chat: The death of goldBron Sucheckihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00530576934994289879noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-32566484148708304992014-12-21T16:08:26.208+08:002014-12-21T16:08:26.208+08:00You article misses the real purpose of investing i...You article misses the real purpose of investing in precious metals which involves trading the gold and silver ration. In this way one might even say tha PM's investing pays heftier bonuses than any stock I know. <br /><br />If you had only traded the gold/silver ratio back and forth over the last 12 years, your return right now (with gold @ 1220 and silver at 17.30) would be upwards of 1100%.<br /><br />Here's a brief rough-sketch example: ( my dates and numbers may be slightly off but I hope you'll get what I mean)<br /><br />Would've bought silver in Feb '03<br />Would've traded the silver for gold in Jan '07<br />Would've traded the gold for silver in Oct '08<br />Would've traded the silver for gold in Feb 2011<br /><br />Anyone can do the math with the above dates and figure out how your ounces of metal would have grown four-fold while the prices of gold have practically tripled over that period of time even with gold at 1220 today.Adrian Ariashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15726608447700808073noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-89804094973148382262009-07-01T07:07:31.594+08:002009-07-01T07:07:31.594+08:00I wonder whether your focus on volatility is more ...I wonder whether your focus on volatility is more a function of recent volatility, while the commentators of the late 90's/early 2000's were a function of the lack of volatility. As first anonymous said, the underlying volatility of your measuring stick (dollars)would need to be questioned, rather than gold. However, I take your point that joe public will probably see it the way you describe. Personally, I have my doubts that joe public's further involvement is needed, given that significant holdings are already in private hands. The Chinese and the Russians seem to be emerging as the mainstays of the market. They probably wouldn't like to see too much volatility. I guess we will have to wait and see who wins.Keithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16937180113775552337noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-52178546734291421432009-06-25T02:00:22.537+08:002009-06-25T02:00:22.537+08:00Very good article.
In my opinion, it is all a ma...Very good article. <br /><br />In my opinion, it is all a matter of market timing. It does not matter if it is gold, oil, or Microsoft, if you have access to good market timing signals, they will help you get in and out at a profit.<br /><br />No guarantees in this business, but if they are right most of the time, you can still make $s.<br /><br />There are may web sites providing them out there (search Google). Just find one that works and use it! Check out http://invetrics.com as an example.<br /><br />Its Dow Jones timing signals are up 43% as of 6/23/09 while the Dow is up just 29% off its March lows.<br /><br />Following a market timing system works!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17899556728130645128noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-66393694840517735292009-06-23T08:52:57.935+08:002009-06-23T08:52:57.935+08:00Backwardation needs to be sustained before anythin...Backwardation needs to be sustained before anything can be read into it.<br /><br />I posted this blog on Kitco, follow the comments at https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=44835Bron Sucheckihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00530576934994289879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-89198103359584498152009-06-22T18:57:01.172+08:002009-06-22T18:57:01.172+08:00and does it mean anything?and does it mean anything?Justinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-52826391817395449272009-06-22T18:54:58.710+08:002009-06-22T18:54:58.710+08:00and one more thing, the June-July basis on COMEX g...and one more thing, the June-July basis on COMEX gold has been zero for a week, after being negative for one day.<br /><br />Negative lease rates, backwardation on COMEX, is all this just coincidence?Justinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-31409468420747927342009-06-22T17:40:15.406+08:002009-06-22T17:40:15.406+08:00Let me just say this, no one is offerring to lend ...Let me just say this, no one is offerring to lend us gold and pay us to do so!Bron Sucheckihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00530576934994289879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-56248575618093177272009-06-22T17:39:17.965+08:002009-06-22T17:39:17.965+08:00Good point, but I'd say that it is very hard f...Good point, but I'd say that it is very hard for people to switch from seeing the world in dollars to ounces. The problem may be that they would perceive ounces are unstable and therefore opt for some other more stable fiat.<br /><br />On negative lease rates, I left a comment at http://silveraxis.com/todayinsilver/2009/06/15/smoking-guns-and-banks-that-smoke/ on this very point:<br /><br />negative lease rates may just reflect problems with LIBOR, see the article On The Uselessness Of LIBOR http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/on-uselessness-of-libor.htmlBron Sucheckihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00530576934994289879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-493507592144618662009-06-22T12:23:35.829+08:002009-06-22T12:23:35.829+08:00and another thing, I note that 1 month gold lease ...and another thing, I note that 1 month gold lease rates at LBMA have been negative since March. Looking for backwardation in GOFO, when lease rates can go negative would seem to be pointless.<br /><br />Or do negative lease rates <b>not</b> mean that gold lenders are swapping less cash (or equivalent securities)for their gold in repurchase agreements?<br /><br />Any ideas?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-34576951795243916812009-06-22T11:24:56.666+08:002009-06-22T11:24:56.666+08:00Could you produce a graph of the gold price over t...Could you produce a graph of the gold price over the last decade in Zimbabwe dollars?<br /><br />I understand what you are saying but surely at some point the perception of volatility in gold prices must turn to a perception of volatility in value of the dollar i.e. downwards, otherwise there couldn't be runaway inflation, which there can be Zimbabwe being the most recent example. <br /><br />Where is that tipping point?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com