tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post7587005769371687797..comments2024-02-05T17:24:09.663+08:00Comments on Gold Chat: We are nearing an endgameBron Sucheckihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00530576934994289879noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-60965162962398719692011-04-23T08:35:19.169+08:002011-04-23T08:35:19.169+08:00Ok. If you are just making a statement with no ba...Ok. If you are just making a statement with no basis, you could have just said so to start with.<br /><br />The numbers, far from meaning nothing are an indication of leverage. GDP, regardless of it's accuracy, is a single number that the above are scaled against, leading to a comprehensible, comparable set of numbers.<br /><br />Are there other factors? Yes. Are these a good first order indicator of risk? Yes.Forgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-57637134572506072382011-04-23T06:02:50.956+08:002011-04-23T06:02:50.956+08:00No, I'm not confusing anything with anything e...No, I'm not confusing anything with anything else. Those percentages mean nothing.<br /><br />That GDP is all fluff anyhow.Justinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-53860541861987671102011-04-22T19:56:44.865+08:002011-04-22T19:56:44.865+08:00Careful there. You are confusing rate of change w...Careful there. You are confusing rate of change with position. In regards to rate of change you are right - public debt in increasing quickly, while private debt is now flat or starting to edge downward.<br /><br />However in terms of overall position, private debt is clear of 160% of GDP, mortgage debt on it's own is clear of 90% GDP , while the government has yet to reach 20%. Even allowing the 3:1 ratio between public and private, mortgage debt is a greater current risk to our economy than the government.<br /><br />Still, the way things are headed, you be correct in a year or two.Forgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-38485964007590772232011-04-21T14:11:41.466+08:002011-04-21T14:11:41.466+08:00No Forge, the real risk is that our creditors will...No Forge, the real risk is that our creditors will, probably suddenly, realise that government bonds will not 'pay'. The government debt market is out of control, $4.6 billion already in April & that's not a big month.<br /><br />Property values are secondary to the government bond market.Justinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-86474928237762110052011-04-21T13:41:20.273+08:002011-04-21T13:41:20.273+08:00Relatively speaking, the government is not in that...Relatively speaking, the government is not in that bad a position balance wise. Cashflow is a different thing, especially in the face of tightness privately.<br /><br />No, our real risk has been and remains the massive private exposure we have to property values.Forgehttp://intuitivereason.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-33651815412652891472011-04-20T12:54:41.036+08:002011-04-20T12:54:41.036+08:00Agreed, but this is the first one I've seen sa...Agreed, but this is the first one I've seen saying de-risk yourself and talking about gold as part of a new currency.Bron Sucheckihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00530576934994289879noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6089228851855763774.post-7835876734162140702011-04-20T12:22:39.646+08:002011-04-20T12:22:39.646+08:00Hey Bron
I find it somewhat comical that these so...Hey Bron<br /><br />I find it somewhat comical that these so called 'high profile' executives keep saying Australia is 'better positioned'.<br /><br />I say garbage. We are currently doing ok due to the relative strength of the AUD against the USD but noting the level of outstanding government debt and given the fact that it is no more likely to be repaid than in 1997, I say we are living in a precarious credit bubble. A bubble that is no less likely to burst than during the Asian Financial Crisis.Justinnoreply@blogger.com